August’s employment data is released at 8:30. Interest rate swap contracts show roughly a 35% chance that the Fed will lower rated by 50 bps when it meets September 17-18. A quarter point reduction is still believed to be the most probable outcome. That split has boosted the scope for big gains and losses in … Read more
FRB Chair Powell stated that monetary policy will be largely dependent upon the jobs market. Yesterday the monthly JOLTS Survey was considerably lower than expected, falling to the lowest level since the start of 2021. Moreover, the prior month was revised marginally lower. Led by the two-year Treasury, Treasuries rallied across the curve. For only … Read more
Equites initially climbed across the board and bonds fell after data indicated the economy is strong despite elevated rates and a disappointing outlook from market leviathan NVDA. As noted several times, the hype around NVDA’s result was intense. The overall immediate ramification was a nothing burger. A late afternoon selloff sent the NASDAQ down about … Read more
The event of the week arrived. NVDA posted results that exceeded expectations, but its sales forecast fails to meet lofty expectations. Currently shares are down about 5%. The hype leading into the announcement was great and generally speaking a market nonevent as NASDAQ futures are up about 0.1%. Dow futures are up about 0.4%. Changing … Read more
At the close NVDA will announce its quarterly results. Goldman Sachs calls the NVDA “as the most important stock on earth” given its massive influence on the broader indexes. Bloomberg writes NVDA is responsible for over 40% of the NASDAQ’s 100 gain this year. NVDA is up about 28% in three weeks. The S & … Read more
Will President Biden forego the Democratic nomination? Sixty-five percent of people polled believe he should. Only 37% of Democrats are satisfied that he is the nominee. Many Democratic leaders and pundits have suggested that he should drop out of the race.CNN’s Van Jones stated the optics are horrific, commenting “A bullet could not stop Trump, … Read more
Led by the mega caps, equities fell on concern over tighter US curbs on chip sales to China, spurring a rout in the sector that has powered the advance since October. This news was unforeseen thus perhaps creating a selling vortex as ownership of this sector is at record highs. It is a very over … Read more
Bloomberg wrote yesterday The assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend has boosted his odds of winning the US election and may push traders to pile into sectors that stand to benefit the most from a Republican control the White House. The unprecedented nature of the attack will boost volatility and in the … Read more
Markets generally ignored the slightly higher than expected increase in July’s Producer Prices. The PPI rose 0.2% from the month earlier. Compared with a year ago, the PPI rose 2.6%. Stripping out food and energy, the core rate increased 0.4% from the month before and 3.0% from a year ago. As noted, both measures were … Read more
The CPI surprised nominally on the downside offering evidence that the Central Bank may be able to cut rates as soon as September. Briefly, the core CPI climbed 0.1% from May, the smallest advance since August 2021. The year-over-year measure rose 3.3%, also the slowest pace in more than three years. The Treasury market rallied … Read more
