President elect Trump and Elon Musk has thrown Congress into disarray as both publicly stated they will not support the Continuing Resolution (CR), threatening a government shutdown by this weekend. This begets a larger question, the effectiveness of DOGE. Today’s CR battle can be viewed as the proverbial “shot over the bow” or a very … Read more
The Federal Reserve delivered a “hawkish cut,” defined as lowering the overnight rate by 0.25% but reigned in the number of cuts they expect in 2025 to only two. This was a moderate surprise as the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecasted three cuts for the next year. Before the outcome of … Read more
The Federal Reserve announces it intended monetary policy dictum at 2:00. The markets are expecting a “hawkish cut” of 0.25% bringing the overnight target rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. There are several bulge bracket firms that suggest the 10-year Treasury will yield between 5% and 6% in the intermediate future, the result … Read more
Markets are pricing over a 90% probability of a 0.25% cut in the Fed Funds rate tomorrow. There is also widespread agreement that this will be accompanied by forward guidance suggesting fewer cuts in 2025 than previously indicated. It is also expected that FRB Chair Powell will not close off his options for a January … Read more
Tomorrow is the commencement of a two-day FOMC meeting. It is widely expected the Central Bank will lower the overnight rate by another 0.25%, bringing the benchmark rate down to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. That would mark a full percentage point of reductions since September. Rate cuts are forecasted to slow next year, … Read more
The CPI rose at a “firm” pace that met expectations, solidifying expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week. It is also additional evidence that the battle against inflation has stalled. The core CPI rose by 0.3% for the fourth straight month. From a year ago it rose 3.3%. The headline number … Read more
Markets were quiet unwilling to make any significant moves ahead of key inflation data released today and tomorrow. Bank America writes “the market is pricing in the smallest implied reaction to the CPI since 2021.” Consensus is expecting a 0.3% increase in both the headline and core CPI. Year over year, the CPI is forecasted … Read more
All markets were quietly lower yesterday for a myriad of reasons. Market leader NVDA slid as China opened a probe over suspicions the chipmaker broke anti-monopoly laws. Concerns that Middle East tensions could further escalated given the unexpected toppling of the Syrian government. To more mundane topics such as tomorrow’s release of November’s CPI that … Read more
Treasuries rallied on Friday as the November employment data was mixed. At the time of this writing, futures are suggesting an 80% probability the Federal Reserve will ease at its December 18 meeting. The market has almost priced in three rate cuts during 2025, virtually unchanged from the day before the data was released The … Read more
November’s employment report is released at 8:30. Non-farm and private sector payrolls are expected to rise by 218k and 203k, respectively. A 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings are forecasted. The labor participation rate (LPR) is believed to have increased to 62.7% from 62.6%. Any increase in wages may be … Read more
