The quarter is almost over, the worst quarter since 2023, primarily the result of tariff uncertainty. All averages are negative for the year and according to Bloomberg anyone who has put an equal monthly sum into the NASDAQ 100 during the past 15 months is now down. How will this affect sentiment especially if the … Read more
A tariff induced selloff in tech mega caps drove equities lower. Copper surged to a record high as the Administration is threatening a tariff on this key industrial metal for AI. On the other hand, both energy and big banks again rose. A measure of big banks rose for a ninth straight day, the longest … Read more
A measure of consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest level in four years on concerns about higher prices and economic outlook amid the Trump Administration’s escalating tariffs. A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped to the lowest in 12 years. However, a gauge of present conditions was essentially unchanged. The … Read more
Led by the mega techs, equities rallied on signs that tariffs will be more targeted than anticipated. Conversely bond yields rose as did oil. The Administration is increasing pressure on Iran/China as well as proposing a 25% tariff in nations buying crude and gas from Venezuela. As noted, equites advanced on the back of a … Read more
The NASDAQ 100 has declined for five consecutive weeks. The longest such decline since 2022. During this period, there have been some bounces, however each bounce has been met with a successive low, punishing one of the most time-honored investment strategies of buying on the dip. JP Morgan writes retail/individual investors pace of buying during … Read more
Will the narrative begin to rise about the amount of Treasuries the Fed will let roll off its balance sheet? As noted yesterday, the Committee indicated it will let $5 billion roll off its balance sheet versus $25 billion. FRB Chair Powell stated the reason for this course of action was related to federal debt … Read more
As widely expected, Federal Reserve officials held the benchmark interest rate steady for second straight meeting, though they telegraphed expectations for slower economic growth and higher inflation. The Committee also said it would begin slowing the pace at which it is reducing its balance sheet. The decision to hold rates steady comes as the President’s … Read more
The FOMC is expected to hold rates steady today as all attention will be focused upon the Committee’s updated economic projections…aka the dot plot. For now, policymakers have signaled they are in a wait and see mode, seeking further progress on inflation and greater clarity on the economic impact of Trump’s policies, chief amongst them … Read more
Markets were initially bifurcated as a rout in tech mega caps weighed heavily upon some of the indices. Bloomberg writes 90% of the companies in the S & P 500 gained yesterday even as the “Magnificent Seven” at one time sank over 3%, with the cohort ultimately closing about 1.1% lower. Retail sales were released … Read more
At the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, the Committee will update its interest rate forecasts. How will it differ from the one issued in December? Will the Fed acknowledge the uncertainties around inflation from tariffs, where it is still predominantly more bark than bite? Will the Federal Reserve increase the neutral rate from around 2% … Read more
