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WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED

Equites rose yesterday as weekly jobless claims jumped to their highest level since August, exceeding all estimates.  Against this backdrop, the market slightly increased its policy easing views for 2024.  As noted the other day, since the Fed stated monetary policy will be determined by the statistics, every statistic released has the potential to alter … Read more

GROWTH VS. VALUE

It is widely accepted that the valuation gap between value and growth stocks is historic. Bloomberg writes “value investing is a vanishing trade for more than a decade as the strategy has misfired again and again.Legendary hedge fund manager David Einhorn states “the valuation be damned boom in passive investing has fundamentally broken the markets, … Read more

ARE ZERO DATED OPTIONS INFLUENCING MARKET DIRECTION?

Stocks head towards their best three-day rally of 2024 on expectations the Fed will be able to cut interest rates this year. Several days ago, equities suffered their worst month since September 2022 according to CNBC.The volatility is primarily the result of the lack of liquidity and utter domination of algorithmic and technology-based trading amplified … Read more

APRIL’S JOBS DATA WAS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED

April’s jobless data was weaker than expected.  Non-farm payrolls advanced 175,000 last month, the smallest gain in six months.  The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, the labor participation rate held steady but the pivotal rate for workers aged 25-54 increased to 83.5%, matching the highest level in two decades.  Increased participation will help restrain … Read more

HAWKISH DATA; DOVISH FED

Equites were initially spooked by data indicating that factory activity contracted for the first time since 2022   Moreover and perhaps more frighting, a measure of costs for materials and other inputs rose for the second straight month with the gauge increasing the highest level since June 2022. The JOLTS Job Openings were lower than anticipated … Read more

FED STATEMENT AT 2:00 P.M.

The FOMC will make a statement at 2:00 P.M. How will it affect psychology? No change in interest rates is expected.Yesterday a broad gauge of labor costs that is closely watched by the Federal Reserve accelerated in the first quarter by more than forecast. The Employment Cost Index (ECI), which measures wages and benefits, increased … Read more

FED MEETING CONCLUDES WEDNESDAY;  A 44.6% CAPITAL GAINS RATE PROPOSED BY THE ADMINISTRATION

A Bloomberg headline Friday read “AI Craze Powers Best Week in 2024 for Stocks.” The earnings induced surge in both MSFT and GOOG coupled with an inflation report that largely met expectations was the catalyst for Friday’s advance.The monetary policy narrative has radically changed with the markets now “reasonably assuming one interest rate cut, maybe … Read more