Consumer Confidence fell for the second consecutive month and to a four-month low, largely the result of the ongoing rise in gasoline prices. The drop in the S & P 500, which is also at a three-month low, has not helped either. The data was
Longer dated Treasuries are continuing to sell off. The 10-year Treasury is at the highest level since October 2007 while the thirty-year Treasury is at a level last seen in April 2011. Shorter dated debt, defined as two years or less have remained in a
Earnings season commences in about 2 weeks, thus suggesting the possibility of profit warnings occurring this week. As noted several times, quarterly economic growth is perhaps the greatest since 2003, thus suggesting profits may
Will the perceived Goldilocks economy continue? Oil prices are surging. The auto industry is facing an unprecedented strike. The government may shut down. The global economy is in a major transition. Interest rates are
As widely expected, the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the overnight rate unchanged in a target range of 5.25%-5.50%, a 22 year high. The “dot plot” or the median estimate of each FOMC member foresees one
It is widely believed the FOMC will not deliver any interest rate surprises today: Officials have amply signaled that there will not be any further increase this
The Treasury market is poised to post its third consecutive year of losses, a feat that has not occurred in “several generations.” Bloomberg writes Treasuries maturing in 10 or more years have slumped about
Tomorrow is the commencement of a two-day FOMC meeting. It is widely expected the Committee will keep rates steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range and might “pencil” in one more interest hike later this year and stay at
Underlying inflation ran at a faster than expected monthly pace in August, leaving the door open for additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Core consumer prices—which exclude food and energy prices—advanced 0.3% from
The WSJ reports the budget deficit for fiscal year 2023 that ends on September 30 will be $1.7 trillion. The estimate is from the Congressional Budget office’s monthly report for August and the deficit is even worse than
