Equites rose on earnings optimism. As written yesterday, Bloomberg reported a record 63% of the 409 respondents to its poll expect earnings to give equities a boost. This is the highest vote of confidence for corporate profits since the poll began asking the question in October 2022 according to the newswire. The markets may know … Read more
Treasuries rebounded nominally yesterday after a brutal selloff that sent yields to their highest level since November. Equities however struggled amid a slide in tech megacaps. Bloomberg reports the equity risk premium—a measure of the differential between stocks and bonds expected returns-is now deep in negative territory, something that has not happened since the early … Read more
The two-year Treasury, or the instrument most sensitive to monetary policy is broaching 5%, the highest level since November.
Yields across the Treasury spectrum continue to rise, broaching the levels experienced last November. March’s retail sales data, which exceeded almost all public estimates, was the
Equities sold off on Friday as perhaps the fear trade has reemerged. Both Treasuries and oil rallied on headlines that Israel is preparing for an imminent attack from
Producer Prices increased in March from a year earlier by the most in 11 months, highlighting the sticky nature of inflation. The headline number was 2.1% from March 2023 while the core rose by 2.4%. The data largely met expectations. Markets were bifurcated on the data. The Dow was essentially unchanged while the NASDAQ advanced … Read more
March’s CPI topped forecasts for a third straight month, heralding a fresh wave of price pressures that may likely delay and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts until
The selloff in the ten-year Treasury is continuing as yields are now at the highest level since November. The markets conviction of three quarter point reductions is quickly dissipating, with
The BLS labor report is released at 8:30. Analysts are expecting a 213k and 170k increase in nonfarm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 3.8% unemployment rate, a 0.3% increase in
The equity and Treasury markets were bifurcated yesterday. Equites were initially lower as the ADP Private Sector Employment Survey indicated that hiring is
