Markets were relatively quiet as the data largely met expectations. Equites declined about 0.5% and Treasuries rallied across the curve.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he expects inflation to continue falling in the second half of the year, adding that elevated borrowing costs are restraining the economy.Williams said that while inflation … Read more
Stocks and bonds fell as another weak sale of Treasuries raised concerns about swelling supply that could keep diving yields higher at time when the Federal Reserve is signaling rates will be higher for longer.Longer maturities led Treasury market losses with 30-year yields rising over nine basis points to over 4.75%.Bloomberg wrote yesterday the narrow … Read more
JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon reiterated comments that today’s geopolitical environment is the most difficult and dangerous in at least two generations.I vaguely recall the “duck and cover” drills in the 1960’s, drills promoted by the government to protect children in schools if a nuclear attack occurred. To remind all, students were instructed to duck underneath … Read more
Equites were relatively quiet yesterday. Treasury yields, however, increased across the spectrum. Bloomberg reported yesterday that China sold a record amount of Treasuries during the first quarter. According to the US Treasury Department, Beijing sold a total of $53.3 billion of Treasuries and agency bonds, perhaps an indicator of a larger trade war lurking just … Read more
A measure of inflation largely met expectations and declined in April for the first time in six months, a small step in the right direction for the Federal Reserve officials looking to start cutting interest rates this year. The core CPI—which excludes food and energy costs—climbed 0.3% from March, snapping a streak of three above … Read more
Producer prices rose more than forecasted in April after an unexpected downward revision into negative territory of March’s data. Compared to a year ago, the PPI rose by the most since April 2023.PPI for final demand increased 0.5% from a month earlier following a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in March. The extent of the swing, … Read more
Markets struggled to find direction ahead of several inflation statistics. The PPI is released today at 8:30. Producer Prices are expected to increase at a greater month over month and year over year pace. The question is how much and what will be the market’s reaction. JP Morgan wrote the market is poised to move … Read more
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined to a six-month low as short-term expectations and concerns about the job market picked up.Inflation is a two-part phenomenon, and the psychological component is rising. Consumers expect prices to climb at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next year, the highest in six months and up from 3.2% from last … Read more
Equites rose yesterday as weekly jobless claims jumped to their highest level since August, exceeding all estimates. Against this backdrop, the market slightly increased its policy easing views for 2024. As noted the other day, since the Fed stated monetary policy will be determined by the statistics, every statistic released has the potential to alter … Read more
Markets were relatively quiet yesterday, searching for a catalyst. Since May 1, the S & P 500 has had a narrow rebound following a 4.2% drop in April, a decline primarily the result of yet another in change monetary policy expectations.Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed commented yesterday “The Committee has more work to do … Read more
