The averages were mixed again yesterday even though over 300 S & P 500 members advanced. The averages might be flat, but the typical company is rising, the inverse of the last several years.
The BLS employment report is released at 8:30. January’s report also contains revision from the previous months. The last revision that occurred was August, a revision that generated considerable attention given that there were 800,000 less jobs created than originally estimated. Analysts are suggesting a downward revision between 600,000 to 700,000 for the 12 months through last March.
The market is expecting non-farm and private sector payrolls to increase by 170k and 150k, respectively, a 4.1% unemployment rate, a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, a 34.3 hourly work week and a 62.5% labor participation rate.
The options market suggests the S & P 500 will move 0.9% in either direction after the data is released.
Yesterday the Treasury market was quiet ahead of today’s 8:30 data.
After the close AMZN released earnings, a report that indicated sales missed estimates initially sending shares down about 9%. The company stated they are planning to spend $100 billion on AI for 2025, a statement that may have caused the shares to retrace some of its losses. Premarket shares are now down about 3%.
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 0.34%, Paris down 0.08% and Frankfurt up 0.02%. China was up 1.22%, Japan down 0.72% and Hang Seng up 1.15%.
Futures are flat ahead of the jobs data. The 10-year is off 1/32 to yield 4.45%.
Kent Engelke
Chief Economic Strategist Managing Director
The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. If you would like to unsubscribe from this e-mail distribution, please reply to this e-mail and indicate that you wish to unsubscribe in your response.
