The NASDAQ outperformed Friday as NFLX surged on its earnings report. Third quarter profit reports have generally exceeded expectations. The obvious question should they not given that estimates have been reduced almost by 50% since mid-July and the economy is expanding at over a 3.0% growth rate?
Treasuries were nominally higher in price but are set to have its first losing month since Aprill. Some would think this too is oxymoronic given current and projected Fed policy.
The election is 15 days away. The “betting market” is now suggesting a 65% probability that Trump will be the next President. Bloomberg commented the “betting market” is perhaps a more accurate indicator for a myriad of reasons including the total number of calls that are now required to obtain a representative sample, a sample that may be flawed for most times the calls are labeled as “spam.”
Oil trade lower again on Friday as it is believed a cease fire may be at hand. Neither Isreal nor Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthis have suggested that such is a possibility. Can it be remotely suggested oil declined again under the growing belief that Trump again will be President, a belief reinforced by the “betting” market?
Earnings season continues to accelerate this week. How will the profits be interpreted?
The economic calendar is comprised of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, several housing statistics and manufacturing indices.
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 0.21%, Paris down 0.87% and Frankfurt down 0.83% . China was up 0.20%, Japan down 0.07% and Hang Seng down 1.57%.
Dow and NASDAQ futures are down 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively ahead of a busy week in earnings. Oil is up about 2.5% on mounting Middle East tensions. The 10-year is off 11/32 to yield 4.12%.
