804.612.9700
Advisor Login Contact Us

JANUARY’S UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT RELEASED AT 8:30

The averages were mixed again yesterday even though over 300 S & P 500 members advanced. The averages might be flat, but the typical company is rising, the inverse of the last several years. The BLS employment report is released at 8:30.  January’s report also contains revision from the previous months.  The last revision that … Read more

A GOOD DAY IF YOU DID NOT OWN THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN

Equites advanced ignoring underwhelming earnings from several tech heavyweights.  Over 350 members of the S & P 500 rose even as the Magnificent Seven sank 1.8% on the back of GOOG’s disappointing results. The market has been whipsawed by data that has surprised in both directions, trade tensions and questions about whether the billions of … Read more

A RELATIVELY NONDESCRIPT DAY

The JOLTS Jobs data surprised again, however this time on the downside.  There are currently 7.6 million job openings.  Analysts had forecasted eight million openings.  November’s data however was revised higher and the “Quit Rate” (workers who are quitting to find another job) rose to 2.0% up from 1.9%. The data suggests the labor market … Read more

DO WE REALLY KNOW THE IMPACT OF TARRIFFS?

It is almost universally accepted that tariffs are inflationary and may perhaps cause a recession.  It was almost universally accepted that the most aggressive Fed in history that increased the overnight logarithmically from 0.00% to 5.5% would be recessionary. In fact, all 24 Primary Dealers (money center banks that interact directly with the Federal Reserve/Treasury) … Read more

WHERE TO?

Where to?  The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—the core PCE—rose 0.2% from November and 2.8% from a year earlier.  The data largely met expectations but is still considerably higher than the 2.0% speed limit. Real disposable income barely rose for a second month, perhaps causing the savings rate to fall to 3.8%, the lowest … Read more

BOOMFLATION IS STILL ALIVE

The economy ended on a strong note.  Fourth quarter GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.3% after rising 3.1% in the prior three-month period.  The median forecast called for a 2.6% growth rate. On the surface it appears this was a miss, but the details suggest otherwise. Inventories subtracted a full percentage point from … Read more

WILL TODAY BE A DAY OF SIGNIFICANCE?

Will today be one of significance.  The FOMC meeting concludes, and the post meeting statement is made at 2:00 PM.  There is little fanfare expected from the forecasted outcome, but every FOMC meeting is of significance given their potential influence over the financial markets. After the close three of largest companies in the world post … Read more

A DAY FOR THE RECORD BOOKS

It was an ugly day yesterday for the chipmakers.  NVDA plunged over 17% on the news that a Chinese company may be an AI chip competitor.  NVDA declined almost $600 billion in capitalization, a decline that is more than the total value of GM and XOM combined.  It was the largest drop in value for … Read more

A BUSY WEEK

Will this be a week of significance?  The preconceived narrative is that technology has improved growth and productivity.  Real GDP has averaged about 2% per year in the past 20 years, about half of its growth rate from 1950-1973 according to First Trust.   It’s hard to quantify government success because they don’t have profit motives. … Read more