Treasuries rallied on Friday as the November employment data was mixed. At the time of this writing, futures are suggesting an 80% probability the Federal Reserve will ease at its December 18 meeting. The market has almost priced in three rate cuts during 2025, virtually unchanged from the day before the data was released The … Read more
November’s employment report is released at 8:30. Non-farm and private sector payrolls are expected to rise by 218k and 203k, respectively. A 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings are forecasted. The labor participation rate (LPR) is believed to have increased to 62.7% from 62.6%. Any increase in wages may be … Read more
FRB Chair Powell stated yesterday the economy is in “remarkably good shape.” Led by technologies, equites maintained their early day gains. Tomorrow is the release of the all-inclusive BLS Employment report. Data yesterday indicated that employment remained firm in November while services activity expanded at the slowest pace in 3 months. At the time of … Read more
Markets were relatively quiet yesterday ahead of several key economic statistics and speeches from Fed officials. The data coupled with Fed comments can outline monetary policy assumptions ahead of the December 18 Fed meeting. Yesterday the top tier JOLTs job survey was stronger than expected. Available positions increased to 7.74 million from a revised 7.37 … Read more
Consumer increased in November to the highest level in more than year on optimism about the economy and labor market in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory. The measure of expectations for the next six months edged to almost a three-year high. Moreover, 51.4% of U.S. households think stock prices are headed higher, according to … Read more
The narrative is rising about the potential implications of massive federal spending and the gargantuan deficit. DOGE is becoming a household world and politicians, think tanks and the electorate love to condemn government waste, fraud and abuse. The issue at hand is the details,,.the specifics as to what agency or program is to be cut. … Read more
Welcome to Thanksgiving Week. Trading is expected to wane during the week as the markets are closed Thursday and are only open to 1:00 PM on Friday. Liquidity may be “challenged” given the potential dearth of traders. The economic calendar has several top tier indicators, the response to which may be exacerbated, perhaps specifically in … Read more
Equites were bifurcated as the Dow advanced about 1.0% while the NASDAQ was essentially unchanged. Energy, finance and the industrials led the advance. Treasuries sold off across the spectrum amid fears of escalation of warfare in Ukraine and the murky outlook for both Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and leadership at the US Treasury Department. … Read more
Markets are continuing to ignore an escalation in Ukrainian tensions. Bloomberg reports that Ukrainian forces fired British cruise missiles at military targets inside Russia for the first time. UK approved the use of its missiles in response to Russia deploying North Korean troops in its war against Ukraine. Additionally, the Washington Post reports anti personal … Read more
Market complacency is great. Ukraine took advantage of its newly granted long rang missile capabilities to strike a military base on Russian territory. Moscow, which warned against such action, stepped up its threat of a nuclear response to conventional attacks. As widely noted, the introduction of North Korean troops to the war has been greeted … Read more
