Market Commentary

The two-year Treasury, or the instrument most sensitive to monetary policy is broaching 5%, the highest level since November. 

Yields across the Treasury spectrum continue to rise, broaching the levels experienced last November.  March’s retail sales data, which exceeded almost all public estimates, was the

Equities sold off on Friday as perhaps the fear trade has reemerged. Both Treasuries and oil rallied on headlines that Israel is preparing for an imminent attack from

Producer Prices increased in March from a year earlier by the most in 11 months, highlighting the sticky nature of inflation.  The headline number was 2.1% from March 2023 while the core rose by 2.4%.  The data largely met expectations. Markets were bifurcated on the data.  The Dow was essentially unchanged while the NASDAQ advanced … Read more

March’s CPI topped forecasts for a third straight month, heralding a fresh wave of price pressures that may likely delay and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts until

The selloff in the ten-year Treasury is continuing as yields are now at the highest level since November.  The markets conviction of three quarter point reductions is quickly dissipating, with

The BLS labor report is released at 8:30.  Analysts are expecting a 213k and 170k increase in nonfarm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 3.8% unemployment rate, a 0.3% increase in

The equity and Treasury markets were bifurcated yesterday.  Equites were initially lower as the ADP Private Sector Employment Survey indicated that hiring is

Both the Treasury and equity markets declined yesterday as solid economic growth, a continued rally in commodities and a flare up in geopolitical risks increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will

Today is the last day of trading for the first quarter.  Wall Street and the Federal Reserve again vastly missed their forecasts for the period.  Writing the obvious, perhaps forecasting models are